Squiggly-Confirmation
0x8d0c985ab57407253b58a333da5c007c13ca0496
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$8.51
Total PnL
$-12.57
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
2 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.08
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.65
$0.01
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.33
$0.26
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.31
$0.00
- NO
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.08
$0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- YES
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.32
- NO
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?
6 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-2.03
- YES
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- NO
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
4 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-2.21
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?$1.06Jul 15, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?$1.15Jul 11, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?$1.05Jul 10, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?$1.15Jul 10, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on July 6?$1.20Jul 6, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on July 6?$1.19Jul 5, 09:01 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by June 30?$1.12Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.24Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.23Jun 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$1.12Jun 28, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.18Jun 19, 04:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?$1.23Jun 15, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?$1.19Jun 13, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$1.17Jun 13, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$2.07May 30, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.06May 9, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?$1.07Apr 29, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?$1.11Mar 30, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$1.31Mar 28, 09:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Autozone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?$2.56Dec 30, 06:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 07:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 06:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.