0x8d1e9c2837082749807dfde051daf62e36c1bafc
0x8d1e9c2837082749807dfde051daf62e36c1bafc
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$58.73
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-103.75
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 15?
4 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$3.70
$0.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 11?
4 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$3.69
$0.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 11?
4 shares @ 95.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$3.69
$0.16
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15?
4 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$3.69
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 13?
4 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$3.68
$0.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 12?
4 shares @ 96.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$3.68
$0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?
4 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$3.68
$0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 14?
4 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$3.68
$0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 13?
4 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$3.67
$0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?
4 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$3.66
$0.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 15?$3.57Apr 15, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 15?$3.60Apr 15, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on April 15?$3.52Apr 15, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15?$3.53Apr 15, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?$3.56Apr 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 14?$3.60Apr 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 14?$3.57Apr 14, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 14?$3.55Apr 14, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 14?$3.54Apr 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?$3.53Apr 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 13?$3.56Apr 13, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 13?$3.55Apr 13, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or below on April 13?$3.58Apr 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 13?$3.58Apr 13, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 13?$3.56Apr 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 12?$3.57Apr 12, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 12?$3.56Apr 12, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?$3.60Apr 12, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 12?$3.59Apr 12, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12?$3.54Apr 12, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $3.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 05:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 03:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.