Frayed-Pear
0x8d2238602842a8f914391da9571962c6903eb5e1
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-981.99
Realised
$-458.53
Win rate
0%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 12?
1000 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-263.68
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 14?
505 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-133.47
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 14?
180 shares @ 26.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-47.81
- YES
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January?
92 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 11?
77 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 12?
71 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.32
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 12?
49 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-13.54
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 17?
44 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-12.20
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14?
26 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.33
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16?$0.00Mar 17, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 17?$1.00Mar 17, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16?$1.00Mar 15, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$0.92Mar 15, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?$1.00Mar 15, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 14?$1.00Mar 14, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14?$1.00Mar 14, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.00Mar 14, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 14?$1.00Mar 14, 03:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$3.83Mar 13, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$0.95Mar 13, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?$0.86Mar 13, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?$1.00Mar 13, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$1.91Mar 12, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$0.00Mar 12, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 12?$1.00Mar 12, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.00Mar 12, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 12?$1.00Mar 12, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 12?$1.00Mar 12, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?$7.30Mar 12, 03:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 4, 13:55 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 02:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.