Serious-Hydrocarb
0x8d307dccf44788f3a6ba01d47b6c59687ab36b31
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$8.50
Total PnL
$-145.73
Realised
$-12.78
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
43 shares @ 30.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.50
$-4.28
- YES
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06?
18 shares @ 34.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-6.16
- OKSAVINGSBANK BRION
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs KT Rolster (BO1)
15 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-06?
14 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-3.96
- NO
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12?
12 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-5.04
- YES
Will AVS Futebol win on 2025-12-06?
10 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06?
10 shares @ 91.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-8.84
- NO
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-06?
9 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.92
- NATUS VINCERE
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3)
9 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.34
- YES
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-12-06?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-2.07
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Mar 4, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 28, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 27, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 26, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 24, 00:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 23, 00:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 21, 00:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 20, 00:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 19, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 18, 00:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 17, 00:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 16, 00:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 15, 00:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 14, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 13, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 12, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 11, 01:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 10, 00:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 9, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 8, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 00:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.