Wallet digest

active

Activity score

44/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-37.7K

Realised

$-721.87

Win rate

37%

78 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
2187 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-422.70
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
1252 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-646.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
1061 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-589.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
1002 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-522.01
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
900 shares @ 57.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026
$0.00
$-514.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
889 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-453.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
872 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026
$0.00
$-457.54
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
830 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-444.39
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
791 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026
$0.00
$-426.53
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
762 shares @ 54.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026
$0.00
$-418.23

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.92Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.17Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$34.35Jun 23, 15:38 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$34.66Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$30.63Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.30Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.95Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$9.51Jun 19, 14:27 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.63Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.61Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$6.99Jun 13, 09:28 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.08Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$11.72Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.52Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.65Jun 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.86Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.86Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.52Apr 4, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.95Apr 3, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.82Apr 2, 00:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

68/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

37% win rate over 78 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

78 closed markets, 37% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry96 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 23
Avg trade size: $5.60
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 27, 14:47 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample: 78 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:18:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data