Considerate-Label
0x8db4f2bcb37078763c70dac5d99c285995479c07
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$51.70
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-980.46
Win rate
16%
173 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
340 shares @ 1.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$32.30
$28.48
- YES
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
340 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.57
$-0.25
- YES
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5550 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.77
$-170.66
- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.75
$-12.88
- YES
Will Steve Daines be the next Senate Majority Leader?
399 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$2.20
$-71.02
- YES
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.75
$-14.87
- YES
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.70
$-0.09
- YES
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.70
$-0.09
- YES
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
200 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-15.08
- YES
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
200 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-15.08
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.30Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.29Jul 28, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$0.33Jul 28, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$5.40Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$5.40Jul 28, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$3.37Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.16Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$11.60Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Te Pāti Māori win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$0.20Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.06Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.19Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$16.54Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.36Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$1.38Jul 28, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.66Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$7.00Jul 28, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$37.31Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Jersey Devils be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?$0.80Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$7.55Jul 28, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$6.44Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 173 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
173 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 173 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.