Growing-Reactant
0x8dca6d89c1ea47c32fb6127305c02c4a50e264e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.0K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
0%
59 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3500 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-78.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
1299 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-461.63
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
900 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
801 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-78.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
800 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
700 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-216.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
700 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-384.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET
600 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-115.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
545 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-242.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$28.50Jul 26, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$16.72Jul 26, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$14.11Jul 26, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$34.39Jul 26, 09:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$6.00Jul 26, 09:49 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.38Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$0.00Jul 23, 09:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$2.04Jul 23, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$1.70Jul 23, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$4.06Jul 23, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$53.11Jul 23, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$46.88Jul 23, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.19Jul 23, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$14.49Jul 23, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$20.06Jul 23, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$22.94Jul 23, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.12Jul 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.45Jul 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$2.55Jul 23, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$3.81Jul 23, 08:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 59 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
59 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 08:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 09:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 59 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.