Unwritten-Effector
0x8de45f7fa83d4a027034935e572002e4b2b6db4c
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.72
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$39.90
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
40 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.18
$-0.14
- YES
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
40 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.14
$-0.14
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 23-March 1?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
1200 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
1171 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-33.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
700 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
618 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7AM ET
600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.02Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.90Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.01Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.00Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.10Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.38Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.25Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.07Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.28Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$9.50Mar 14, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$7.25Mar 14, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$7.50Mar 14, 20:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$3.70Mar 14, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$8.82Mar 3, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$1.00Mar 3, 06:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.83Mar 3, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$0.64Mar 3, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$19.05Mar 2, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$21.22Mar 2, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$10.79Mar 2, 10:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 26, 19:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 14, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.