Substantial-Emotion
0x8de68f9a563093b90a1a8d6d46a75783e29ce52f
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$15.74
Total PnL
$-32.13
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?
8 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$8.33
$0.01
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.31
$0.13
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 96.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.09
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 26?
4290 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31?
1096 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.19
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 15?
1090 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.72
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 14?
1077 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 12?
1077 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.15
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 18?
1068 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 21?
1064 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$8.33Jul 9, 02:53 UTC
- REWARD$0.10Jun 5, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.22Jun 4, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 26?$2.10May 26, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on May 18?$3.20May 18, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9?$1.1KMay 9, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9?$1.1KMay 9, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 8?$1.1KMay 9, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,200 on May 8?$1.1KMay 9, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 8?$1.1KMay 8, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 8?$1.1KMay 8, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 7?$1.1KMay 7, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 7?$1.1KMay 7, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 6?$1.1KMay 7, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 6?$1.1KMay 6, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUY10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$6.18May 4, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 1?$2.12May 1, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 21?$2.13Apr 21, 06:26 UTC
- REWARD$0.16Apr 16, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 14?$2.15Apr 14, 04:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $511.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 12:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 02:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.