Juvenile-Siege
0x8e1faf89c43b6280f1939f5d37a7d29a0a25991b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
194
Open notional
$120.06
Total PnL
$102.02
Realised
$59.97
Win rate
92%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 194- YES
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-01?
51 shares @ 4.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$25.62
$23.57
- YES
Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?
49 shares @ 1.1¢·now 37.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$18.09
$17.55
- NO
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
17 shares @ 5.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 9, 2026$8.78
$7.91
- NO
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
17 shares @ 5.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$8.65
$7.79
- YES
Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?
27 shares @ 1.4¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$5.73
$5.37
- YES
Will Club ABB win on 2026-06-12?
8 shares @ 1.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$3.70
$3.62
- YES
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #2 song this week?
8 shares @ 2.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.19
$3.02
- YES
Will Nicholas Kiswanto be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
12 shares @ 1.9¢·now 27.2¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$3.17
$2.95
- YES
Will Mistral be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
17 shares @ 0.5¢·now 18.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.02
$2.94
- YES
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #2 song this week?
7 shares @ 3.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.92
$2.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Mistral be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.01Jul 22, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tencent be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?$0.03Jul 22, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 22?$0.73Jul 22, 06:23 UTC
- CONVERSIONLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 22?$21.00Jul 22, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 22?$0.10Jul 22, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 22?$0.31Jul 22, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Club Puebla win on 2026-07-21?$0.00Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brian Hualde be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?$0.00Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Blake Bracht be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?$0.00Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chris James be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?$0.00Jul 22, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?$5.20Jul 22, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?$9.35Jul 22, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?$0.35Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?$0.38Jul 22, 05:42 UTC
- CONVERSIONAZ-05 Democratic Primary Winner$24.00Jul 22, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?$0.34Jul 22, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 22?$0.15Jul 22, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?$0.93Jul 22, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 24?$0.09Jul 22, 04:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $0.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.