Definite-Kind
0x8e30865e62bb533e2fb211c4c56021b305eea89b
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-388.57
Realised
$-152.26
Win rate
0%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 3?
270 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.43
- UP
XRP Up or Down on January 8?
269 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.84
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 14?
268 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 12?
266 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.99
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 11?
265 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 6?
265 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
264 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.23
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 9?
253 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.53
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?
200 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 5?
165 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-42.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 21?$0.00Jul 24, 21:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 21?$91.22Jul 21, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 21?$0.17Jul 21, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on July 21?$89.32Jul 20, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 7?$2.99Jul 7, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 3?$1.55Jul 2, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 30?$1.21May 29, 17:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 26?$96.06May 26, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 26?$0.12May 25, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 26?$92.87May 25, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on May 20?$3.63May 19, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19?$93.37May 19, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19?$0.13May 18, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19?$90.07May 18, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 18?$1.54May 17, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 17?$1.77May 16, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?$79.81May 10, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11?$2.13May 10, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?$0.43May 10, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?$76.83May 10, 03:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $26.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 15:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 21:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.