True-Bowtie
0x8e5a09a82f02bd28a6c1e70f907129cd01d3d118
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
109
Open notional
$257.51
Total PnL
$-143.78
Realised
$-0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?
30 shares @ 44.8¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$24.42
$10.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 29?
20 shares @ 28.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.78
$4.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?
31 shares @ 12.6¢·now 27.3¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$8.54
$4.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on July 29?
15 shares @ 40.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.95
$1.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?
15 shares @ 32.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.32
$0.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 30?
15 shares @ 28.7¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.25
$0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.25
$0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 29?
10 shares @ 34.5¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.92
$1.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 29?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.88
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 29?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.72
$-0.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 31?$3.65Jul 29, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$0.90Jul 29, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 29?$8.85Jul 29, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 29?$3.61Jul 29, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 29?$3.75Jul 29, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 30?$2.21Jul 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$9.90Jul 29, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?$9.87Jul 29, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 30?$0.02Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 30?$0.02Jul 29, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 30?$2.26Jul 29, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 30?$0.85Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 30?$3.41Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 31?$3.99Jul 29, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?$0.07Jul 29, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 30?$1.60Jul 29, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$0.86Jul 29, 06:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$5.40Jul 29, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 30?$1.40Jul 29, 06:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 04:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.