Clumsy-Criterion
0x8e6aeedd9d797e0723cd4add3eb46c96fb73eef7
Wallet digest
Activity score
24/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-181.46
Realised
$-2.73
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
2333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
176 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- ECUADOR
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
97 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-62.73
- AUSTRIA
Spread: Austria (-1.5)
26 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpread: Ecuador (-1.5)$63.39Jun 20, 23:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$63.16Jun 20, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$36.46Jun 20, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$36.00Jun 20, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$108.00Jun 13, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$7.35May 20, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)$101.72May 15, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Austria (-1.5)$9.00Mar 31, 18:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $51.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 18:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 23:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.