Steel-Smelting
0x8e6b31210f1ad64943a73f40d7bd2d08691cecf6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-62.39
Realised
$0.58
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C or below on May 7?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
60 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
54 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
42 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
42 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.88
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
41 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
32 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
28 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on February 19?
28 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C or below on May 7?$1.05May 6, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26?$2.00Mar 26, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 22?$3.02Mar 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?$3.00Mar 22, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?$2.02Mar 22, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?$2.27Mar 22, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?$2.73Mar 22, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22?$3.00Mar 22, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?$10.00Mar 22, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?$3.80Mar 19, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?$3.20Mar 19, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?$2.00Mar 19, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's latest video get 14–16 million views on day 1?$0.00Mar 18, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's latest video get 12–14 million views on day 1?$0.00Mar 18, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 18?$2.27Mar 17, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by March 31?$20.38Mar 17, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$0.89Mar 3, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$1.58Mar 1, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.70–2.80 in February?$0.58Mar 1, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.88Feb 28, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 04:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 04:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.