Irritating-Cement
0x8e865d5c1c1287ba5b2de9a9e5ceeadd08b30eb3
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-38.29
Win rate
1%
85 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
556 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
311 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
280 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-97.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
206 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-47.14
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
192 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
143 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
106 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
106 shares @ 61.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-65.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.15Jun 10, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.01Jun 10, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.03Jun 10, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.56Jun 10, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.03Jun 10, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLArizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins$72.06Jun 10, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins$45.45Jun 9, 23:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$8.62Jun 9, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$5.15Jun 9, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$38.86Jun 9, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$25.07Jun 9, 23:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$2.38Jun 9, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$5.21Jun 9, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins$10.09Jun 9, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$31.27Jun 9, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$1.04Jun 9, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$25.05Jun 9, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$5.03Jun 9, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$5.02Jun 9, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET$1.04May 31, 05:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 85 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
85 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $8.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 01:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 09:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 85 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.