Dirty-Exaggeration
0x8e86bdda48cb1aacfdcbab4007e8a405ba4cf73b
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$50.18
Total PnL
$-582.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.20
$2.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.01
$0.35
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 23?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.01
$0.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.00
$0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 87.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.00
$0.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.00
$0.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on July 22?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.00
$0.20
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 23?
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$5.00
$2.05
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 23?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$4.67
$-0.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.88
$0.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 22?$1.50Jul 22, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 22?$4.95Jul 22, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?$2.60Jul 22, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$4.76Jul 22, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?$2.51Jul 22, 17:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 22?$3.48Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 22?$5.01Jul 22, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 22?$11.12Jul 22, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 22?$5.01Jul 22, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 23?$2.95Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 23?$4.76Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 23?$4.96Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$2.40Jul 22, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 17?$0.99Jul 22, 12:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?$4.99Jul 22, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 22?$5.01Jul 22, 12:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $3.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 03:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 18:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.