Stupendous-Mix
0x8e996655d7ab4f235b2d7e495cc67a1bbf86a10c
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
138
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$99.44
Win rate
63%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 138- YES
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January?
1046 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
550 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-67.00
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
274 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 10, 2025$0.00
$-83.34
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
261 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-82.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET
215 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 3AM ET
208 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- NO
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 17-23?
204 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 2AM ET
202 shares @ 39.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-79.99
- ROYAL CHALLENGERS BENGALURU
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru
170 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPortugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 0.5$12.11Jul 6, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$12.36Jul 6, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$10.36Jul 6, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$10.23Jul 6, 15:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-07-05?$20.00Jul 5, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$0.00Jul 5, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-05?$4.10Jul 5, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$4.30Jul 2, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$3.14Jul 2, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$3.14Jul 2, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$3.14Jul 2, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$3.07Jul 2, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$3.16Jul 2, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.30Jul 2, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$4.14Jun 12, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$4.54Jun 12, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$4.14Jun 12, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$3.65Jun 12, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$3.11Jun 12, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$15.57Jun 12, 10:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $17.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 18:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.