Murky-Oversight
0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5M
Realised
$-426.3K
Win rate
16%
140 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?
1624531 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.7K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
1624213 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.7K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair?
1604218 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.5K
- YES
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?
1590425 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.3K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair?
1584611 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.2K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
1537936 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.6K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?
1537886 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.6K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
1536888 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.6K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
1479803 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.8K
- YES
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?
1454540 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.5K
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONWhich Team Will Win the Shortest Game at EWC 2026$140.00Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LGD Gaming Win the Shortest Game at EWC 2026?$54.85Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Team Yandex Win the Shortest Game at EWC 2026?$71.61Jul 28, 15:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.64Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$9.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$20.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bensac Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill k0nda1 Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dankmemes01 Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill k3soju Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill HoroX Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill AQ1H Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ringo Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill diaomei Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill huanyi Win TFT Set 17 Tacticians crown?$50.00Jul 27, 09:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.64Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.65Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.66Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$9.61Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONNBA: LeBron James Next Team$11.1KJul 24, 23:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 140 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
140 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?
$19.8K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $606.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 15:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 140 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.