Bare-Carnival
0x8ebda07e1b5096433940eaa5ea34396b57529c17
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-154.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on January 10?
277 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 5-11?
273 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5?
273 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.28
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 10?
272 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.63
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11?
268 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on January 11?
266 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.55
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 14?
266 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.93
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 9?
265 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 17?
249 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?
206 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.89
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on July 7?$104.12Jul 7, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on July 7?$100.58Jul 6, 23:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3?$108.05Jun 3, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3?$104.70Jun 2, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24?$102.37May 25, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 25?$1.76May 24, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24?$98.99May 24, 15:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 6?$16.37May 24, 15:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7AM ET$26.80May 17, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $100 May 4-10?$65.89May 11, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $100 May 4-10?$62.79May 10, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 Week of April 13 2026?$53.19May 10, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 15?$0.00Apr 26, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $150 January 5-11?$0.00Apr 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 Week of April 13 2026?$50.69Apr 17, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13?$1.55Apr 13, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 6?$64.28Apr 13, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 6?$0.02Apr 6, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 6?$14.47Apr 6, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 6?$0.07Apr 6, 00:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $36.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 24, 23:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 16:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.