Biodegradable-Judge
0x8ed4cabc7b25ccf0461c1a00653f75e104b1a52a
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$30.26
Total PnL
$-989.65
Realised
$205.97
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1501 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.76
$-25.24
- YES
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
26 shares @ 44.0¢·now 21.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.50
$-5.89
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
60075 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-250.39
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-124.00
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?
938 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings?
400 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-56.00
- YES
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
318 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-54.00
- NO
Grokipedia released by October 31?
210 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-111.91
- NO
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
200 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-75.00
- NO
Will MSCI (MSCI) beat quarterly earnings?
190 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2025$0.00
$-43.64
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.