Sentimental-Contagion
0x8ef1fd0cce8881d7a77dada3e8a210df27014f92
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$96.82
Total PnL
$1.05
Realised
$39.36
Win rate
39%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- YES
Will Malachi Toney be on the cover of EA Sports College Football 27?
10 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$9.11
$1.19
- NO
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$4.29
$3.23
- NO
Will "Mutiny" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$3.72
$2.67
- YES
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by at least 25%?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.70
$1.63
- NO
Will "Hazel Eyes" - Sam Smith first week album sales be between 25k and 30k?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$2.47
$1.41
- NO
Will White House post 200+ posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$2.27
$1.21
- NO
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by at least 40%?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.93
$0.85
- YES
Standard Liege vs. RAAL La Louviere: Both Teams to Score in First Half
9 shares @ 0.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.56
$1.56
- NO
Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$1.46
$0.36
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on August 21, 2026?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.42
$0.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?$1.10Aug 20, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?$1.10Aug 19, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$4.58Aug 19, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?$1.09Aug 19, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?$1.10Aug 19, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?$1.10Aug 19, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the most viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 8 million and 8.5 million viewers?$1.10Aug 19, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colin Olds win the 2026 Greater Wellington Regional Council by-election?$1.10Aug 19, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by August 31, 2026?$1.10Aug 19, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 8-10 times in August?$1.10Aug 19, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?$1.04Aug 19, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?$1.10Aug 19, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31?$1.10Aug 19, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?$1.10Aug 19, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leon Goretzka join Newcastle United?$1.09Aug 19, 14:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?$1.20Aug 19, 14:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?$1.21Aug 19, 14:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$5.50Aug 19, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City?$1.10Aug 19, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $3M committed to the Multipli public sale?$1.10Aug 19, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 22:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.