Decimal-Manacle-Artificer
0x8efd981a400b99eefc030d9b504c2f9f94cb1891
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$929.47
Total PnL
$-23.67
Realised
$-3.47
Win rate
32%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 14?
5 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.00
$0.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 13?
5 shares @ 96.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on July 13?
5 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 73°F or below on July 13?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 13?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 14?
5 shares @ 92.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.00
$0.37
- NEW ZEALAND
ODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.00
$0.10
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on July 13?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.00
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 13?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 13?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$5.00
$0.35
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?$4.90Jul 14, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$4.80Jul 14, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 15?$4.52Jul 14, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 15?$4.58Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 14?$4.80Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.64Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 14?$4.89Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?$4.90Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in July?$4.79Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLMichael Olise: 2+ assists$9.31Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 43°C on July 14?$14.37Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 14?$4.70Jul 14, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals$4.75Jul 14, 01:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 13 2026?$4.45Jul 14, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 14?$4.65Jul 14, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYMichael Olise: 2+ assists$4.68Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYMichael Olise: 2+ assists$4.68Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYMichael Olise: 2+ assists$4.68Jul 14, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$4.45Jul 14, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$4.45Jul 14, 01:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
50 closed markets, 32% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 01:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.