Smug-Surge
0x8f12c0baee13e49f25e0de112ce50d4dd4942f23
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.06
Realised
$0.29
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on October 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win 1 borough in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
263 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani win 0 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
263 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
231 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?
225 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will Cuomo x Mamdani debate three times before election?
153 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?$0.92Nov 29, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?$1.33Nov 5, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?$1.00Nov 3, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?$1.00Nov 3, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 4AM ET$2.35Nov 3, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - November 3, 4AM ET$1.20Nov 2, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani get less than 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.00Nov 2, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cuomo x Mamdani debate three times before election?$1.00Nov 2, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win 1 borough in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$1.00Nov 2, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win 0 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?$1.00Nov 2, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Curtis Sliwa drop out?$1.13Nov 2, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLMonad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$1.26Nov 2, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$0.88Nov 2, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Government shutdown end by November 7?$1.21Nov 2, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curtis Sliwa drop out?$1.00Nov 2, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on November 1?$1.72Nov 2, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$1.00Nov 1, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on November 1?$1.00Nov 1, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? $1.00Nov 1, 09:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum all time high by October 31?$1.01Nov 1, 08:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 27, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 29, 16:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".