Tough-Federation
0x8f17e57d6aaf54189cc06a910e852b0a9dd56ead
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$7.82
Total PnL
$-319.03
Realised
$-16.23
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
82 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.82
$-6.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
6000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-14.88
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$70 in January?
2011 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle at $72.5-$75 in January?
490 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will the US strike Venezuela next?
304 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
263 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?$13.00Apr 2, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$6.00Apr 2, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$11.00Apr 2, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$10.00Apr 2, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$14.00Apr 2, 22:59 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?$9.52Apr 2, 22:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$11.15Apr 2, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$33.34Apr 2, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$5.24Feb 19, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$5.00Feb 19, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?$4.00Feb 19, 22:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$12.10Feb 18, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$7.00Feb 18, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.00Feb 18, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$8.26Feb 18, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.00Feb 18, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$6.00Feb 18, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$16.39Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?$1.00Feb 10, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$18.00Feb 10, 04:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $7.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 04:28 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 2, 23:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.