Verifiable-Uncertainty
0x8f2c7482e8b89a1880a3f8ff5535b5f94e1605a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$79.31
Total PnL
$0.19
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
36 shares @ 99.8¢·now 98.2¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$35.25
$-0.59
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
13 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$13.11
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10?
12 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$12.24
$0.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?
7 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$7.28
$0.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 10?
6 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$6.31
$0.12
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?
5 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$5.11
$0.12
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$0.95Apr 10, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$2.00Apr 10, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 10?$12.00Apr 10, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 10?$6.20Apr 10, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10?$7.11Apr 10, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?$13.01Apr 10, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$0.00Apr 10, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Apr 10, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$0.00Apr 10, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$13.42Apr 10, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$14.28Apr 10, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$13.41Mar 2, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$14.27Mar 2, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMThe Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)$7.93Mar 2, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMZhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?$14.72Mar 2, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?$25.03Mar 2, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Bondi Parlay (Feb 27)$7.50Feb 26, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$12.00Feb 26, 02:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$0.50Feb 26, 02:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $14.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 11:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 10, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".