Amazing-Maracas
0x8f2f4db593ee91ef1e3875c90e227ff7549e73a0
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$25.34
Total PnL
$-124.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 96.3¢·now 98.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.22
$0.22
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.10
$-0.00
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 86.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.53
$0.16
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.38
$0.00
- NO
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.38
$0.00
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.38
$-0.01
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$1.35
$-0.03
- NO
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
2 shares @ 77.1¢·now 86.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.34
$0.14
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in July?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$1.34
$-0.00
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.31
$-0.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.39Jul 11, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.21Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$2.10Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.38Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.39Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.32Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.38Jul 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?$1.38Jul 11, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in July?$1.34Jul 11, 09:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $1.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.