Witty-Chance-Construction
0x8facbafc832965494effc1c9a529010e653f9be3
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$107.63
Total PnL
$-9.63
Realised
$-0.54
Win rate
67%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on August 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 82.9¢·now 90.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.17
$0.43
- NO
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 72.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.56
$-0.16
- SD
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?
5 shares @ 90.4¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$4.34
$-0.42
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center revenue be above $90B?
19 shares @ 12.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$4.16
$1.84
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 15?
20 shares @ 11.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.10
$1.90
- YES
Beezie FDV above $200M one day after launch?
7 shares @ 34.5¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.77
$1.49
- NO
Will Botond Fülöp be the next President of Hungary?
4 shares @ 65.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.55
$1.21
- YES
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $575B by August 31?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.49
$1.15
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.36
$1.34
- NO
Will Lyntris' market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?
4 shares @ 65.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.31
$0.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026?$0.09Aug 14, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?$2.27Aug 14, 02:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?$10.33Aug 13, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?$0.63Aug 13, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lyntris' market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?$1.55Aug 13, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lyntris' market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?$2.39Aug 13, 20:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void?$0.00Aug 13, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lyntris' market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?$2.39Aug 13, 19:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a phantom?$0.00Aug 13, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to an iron golem?$1.39Aug 13, 19:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a ghast?$0.00Aug 13, 19:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to an enderman?$4.60Aug 13, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a Warden?$14.31Aug 13, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a Wither?$5.00Aug 13, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a piglin?$0.00Aug 13, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by August 31?$1.25Aug 13, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed be eliminated by suffocation?$1.46Aug 13, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a witch?$1.36Aug 13, 19:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a slime?$0.00Aug 13, 19:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kai or Speed die to a slime?$0.00Aug 13, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.