Giant-Unemployment
0x8fae33f5822f3e5e472d4796a55d5110241b2f76
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$101.66
Total PnL
$-228.65
Realised
$39.82
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 23?
15 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$14.80
$1.90
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
15 shares @ 68.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$14.44
$4.24
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?
14 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$13.67
$2.03
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 19?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$9.99
$1.79
- NO
Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 25%?
5 shares @ 65.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.00
$1.73
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?
5 shares @ 68.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.98
$1.54
- NO
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
5 shares @ 66.1¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.93
$1.63
- NO
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.83
$1.23
- NO
Will Angela Murray be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 6)?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$4.70
$1.35
- NO
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.53
$0.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$3.59Aug 19, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$5.00Aug 19, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19?$15.00Aug 19, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?$4.95Aug 19, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 24, 2026?$3.95Aug 19, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$3.03Aug 19, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$5.00Aug 19, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 19?$6.35Aug 19, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$4.98Aug 19, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$4.95Aug 19, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$4.98Aug 19, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keith Gross be the FL-02 Republican nominee?$4.95Aug 19, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?$4.95Aug 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 19?$13.31Aug 18, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$4.98Aug 18, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$14.85Aug 18, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$4.98Aug 18, 23:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?$4.95Aug 18, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$12.75Aug 18, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 19?$0.79Aug 18, 23:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 15:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 23:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.