Surprised-Hare
0x8fbd7cf5f806f563080864694415829f7229a959
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.0K
Realised
$839.40
Win rate
100%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26?
46484 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-310.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June 26?
28446 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-302.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 1?
28251 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-40.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 25?
28143 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-132.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?
26940 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-199.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June 25?
26329 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-91.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26?
25077 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-279.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on July 1?
24673 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-68.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26?
24541 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-276.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26?
22242 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-243.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 28?$5.54Jul 28, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$1.05Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$4.22Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$3.03Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$1.69Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$3.40Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$3.45Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29?$3.80Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 28?$1.82Jul 28, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?$5.42Jul 28, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 28?$2.50Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 30?$2.09Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?$0.92Jul 28, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 30?$8.60Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?$1.26Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.