Grounded-Sunday
0x8fdd35996452c5a4bf0316e74587e8e713ab23d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-509.05
Realised
$-117.67
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-14?
1460 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-14.60
- HEAT
Heat vs. Warriors
283 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-97.27
- BILLS
Bills vs. Broncos
154 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-73.95
- NO
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?
108 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-75.81
- T1 ACADEMY
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner
99 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-50.46
- NO
Will Senegal vs. Morocco end in a draw?
92 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Sony Open in Hawaii tournament?
89 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- T1 ACADEMY
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3)
52 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-18.76
- KRAKEN
Penguins vs. Kraken
44 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-20.60
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.07Jan 20, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.33Jan 20, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.94Jan 20, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?$4.42Jan 20, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMDevils vs. Flames$0.00Jan 20, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.01Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.24Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.01Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brendan Fraser be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Jan 20, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.01Jan 20, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.01Jan 20, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.36Jan 20, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.01Jan 20, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Indiana (-8.5)$0.00Jan 20, 06:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 19, 20:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 20, 07:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.