Limp-Plasterboard
0x8ff17e5e401e89e890b519f03b045adad2f9675e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-520.81
Realised
$-15.98
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
14000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
5112 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.97
- YES
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 36 and 38 million views on day 3?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.67Mar 15, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China join the Board of Peace?$1.03Mar 15, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland join the Board of Peace?$1.64Mar 15, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China join the Board of Peace?$2.53Mar 12, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?$2.53Mar 12, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?$1.03Mar 12, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland join the Board of Peace?$0.41Mar 12, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.62Mar 12, 01:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$0.00Mar 12, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$24.20Mar 12, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$17.05Mar 12, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$1.98Mar 12, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$2.00Mar 12, 00:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$17.32Mar 12, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$20.15Mar 12, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$7.16Mar 12, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$3.00Mar 12, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 6?$1.39Mar 12, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$7.15Mar 12, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$5.00Mar 12, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 21:59 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 15, 05:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.