Tough-Transit
0x8fff01819bd9fa175cc2c8feab5ba3730a770482
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
112
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-88.53
Realised
$-6.43
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 112- NO
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$150.06
$0.07
- NO
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$100.07
$0.05
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.07
$0.05
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.07
$0.05
- NO
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$100.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$99.95
$-0.05
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.78Jul 1, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the match not air?$1.72Jul 1, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$0.02Jul 1, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$5.12Jul 1, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$4.85Jul 1, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$10.00Jul 1, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.00Jul 1, 01:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$3.60Jul 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$0.00Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$5.00Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June?$5.00Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$5.00Jun 30, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?$20.00Jun 30, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?$20.00Jun 30, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5$10.27Jun 30, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$0.85Jun 30, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?$36.86Jun 30, 20:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $7.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 08:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 03:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.