Lavish-Sibling
0x9008375af597fa74db0b17c7dc2dfc31d2fc09f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$3.68
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
503 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
446 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-12.70
- NO
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?
405 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 19?
345 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?
250 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3?
217 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25?
194 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-18.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24?
180 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?
170 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-7.68
- NO
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?
161 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?$6.24Jul 22, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.25Jul 22, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?$6.22Jul 21, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.38Jul 21, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.85Jul 21, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.60Jul 21, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.92Jul 21, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 22?$0.20Jul 21, 12:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$1.12Jul 21, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?$3.35Jul 21, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 21?$2.33Jul 21, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$2.03Jul 21, 00:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$0.60Jul 20, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$0.29Jul 20, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$0.60Jul 20, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?$5.61Jul 19, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 19?$1.05Jul 19, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?$3.14Jul 19, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?$0.14Jul 19, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 19?$0.90Jul 19, 04:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 04:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 03:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.