0x900dbd70860df8341c0525454b02c08b7fddd09e
0x900dbd70860df8341c0525454b02c08b7fddd09e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$152.32
Total PnL
$14.61
Realised
$14.61
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Josh Kimbrell win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$100.00
$9.00
- YES
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
115 shares @ 28.1¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$52.33
$20.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- OVER
Christian McCaffrey: Receiving Yards O/U 110.5
441 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.41
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
100 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.20
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- NO
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
86 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 15, 2025$0.00
$-0.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$9.50Apr 1, 23:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$0.60Jan 29, 02:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?$74.80Jan 29, 02:05 UTC
- REWARD$5.48Jan 19, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$0.00Jan 18, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$0.69Jan 18, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$88.75Jan 18, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$0.30Jan 18, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$4.52Jan 18, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by January 31?$3.48Jan 18, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$7.00Jan 18, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$2.70Jan 18, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$6.60Jan 18, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$19.80Jan 18, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$16.50Jan 18, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$2.09Jan 18, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$9.90Jan 18, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.65Jan 18, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$43.42Jan 18, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.48Jan 18, 18:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $33.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 05:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 23:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.