Plain-Bonfire
0x901300a5e40b21dd2f3bf3173834af791f40f84f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-20.22
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
1600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 26?
1318 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.64
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18?
1200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on December 30?
1150 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 12?
1021 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.04
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 3?
980 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6?
800 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 9?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?
431 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on December 9?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$87.26Jun 22, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$87.01Jun 6, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?$1.68Jun 6, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7?$1.07Jun 6, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6?$1.71Jun 6, 11:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?$92.09Jun 6, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27?$92.01May 27, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?$92.09May 27, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?$92.00May 22, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 17?$1.00May 22, 11:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?$90.18May 22, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?$90.01May 17, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 17?$1.00May 17, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18?$2.57May 17, 06:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 12?$1.20May 17, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$93.19May 17, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$93.01May 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 12?$1.20May 12, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?$94.09May 12, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7?$94.01May 7, 06:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $65.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 12:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.