Low-Surplus
0x90231ca6f84257fc1ed34c64d8f0e02dc6454275
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-320.37
Realised
$10.98
Win rate
90%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 6AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 3AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 2AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 6AM ET
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 56 million views on day 2?
813 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$3.10Jul 13, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.26Jul 13, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.22Jul 11, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.40Jul 11, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.38Jul 11, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.40Jul 11, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.35Jul 11, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.16Jul 11, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.33Jul 1, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.05Jun 29, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$2.35Jun 29, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.24Jun 27, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.24Jun 27, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$3.07May 25, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$0.00May 25, 11:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$2.00May 25, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$1.13May 25, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$1.14May 25, 11:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$1.53May 25, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$1.17May 25, 11:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 20, 11:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 10:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.