Vivacious-Manipulation
0x906f2454a777600aea6c506247566decef82371a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-28.2K
Realised
$-242.85
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?
626 shares @ 72.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-456.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 11?
575 shares @ 97.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-560.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 10?
519 shares @ 63.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-330.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 12?
513 shares @ 89.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-458.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17?
453 shares @ 95.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-434.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17?
452 shares @ 81.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-368.96
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19?
434 shares @ 89.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-389.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 18?
425 shares @ 86.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-367.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?
396 shares @ 64.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-256.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 12?
391 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-285.81
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 28?$35.00Jul 29, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 28?$19.51Jul 29, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 28?$26.00Jul 29, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?$5.32Jul 29, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 30?$20.24Jul 29, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?$38.00Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?$7.00Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on July 29?$8.19Jul 29, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?$1.93Jul 29, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?$0.89Jul 29, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on July 29?$11.34Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?$3.86Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 28?$9.00Jul 28, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$38.00Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 29?$3.20Jul 28, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 30?$3.85Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$3.17Jul 28, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 28?$32.00Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 28?$26.00Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 28?$36.00Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $9.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.