Extra-Large-Boolean
0x9072c047975d1e3721b5bb39d9d1116c18eab184
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.29
Total PnL
$-640.52
Realised
$-1.44
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
36 shares @ 5.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.29
$-0.71
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
3670 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-6.02
- YES
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
2974 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Toshimitsu Motegi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
1867 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-6.15
- YES
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?
1765 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-4.55
- YES
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
1200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ahmed Aboutaleb become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
1009 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWinnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu$1.79Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu$1.02Jul 23, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMHamburg European Open: Paula Badosa vs Panna Udvardy$1.64Jul 23, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg European Open: Paula Badosa vs Panna Udvardy$1.02Jul 23, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLGenerali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez$0.95Jul 23, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez$1.03Jul 23, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sebastian Baez$1.02Jul 23, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLGenerali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halys$3.00Jul 23, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halys$1.03Jul 23, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLGenerali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halys$0.98Jul 23, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halys$1.02Jul 23, 08:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4AM ET$0.41Jul 23, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4AM ET$1.04Jul 23, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBloomfield Hills: Mark Lajal vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz$2.05Jul 22, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Acosta$2.07Jul 22, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Acosta$1.03Jul 22, 13:41 UTC
- REDEEMHamburg European Open: Tessa Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot$0.00Jul 22, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWinnipeg: August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns$1.21Jul 22, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinnipeg: August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns$1.01Jul 21, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamburg European Open: Tessa Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot$3.09Jul 21, 19:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 20:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.