Crisp-Circumference
0x907d7ee926c7a3d8becf7a1e662294a93b6d20c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$180.85
Total PnL
$-179.96
Realised
$612.34
Win rate
94%
130 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
85257 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$42.63
$-42.63
- YES
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
78897 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$39.45
$-39.45
- YES
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
55577 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$27.79
$-27.79
- YES
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?
34197 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.10
$-17.10
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
8180 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.27
$4.09
- YES
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
2967 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$4.45
$1.48
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
1179 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.54
$2.36
- YES
Will Delyan Peevski win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
1313 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$1.97
$-0.66
- YES
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?
776 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.94
$0.39
- YES
Will Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1268 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.90
$0.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?$0.02Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.49Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.07Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Krum Zarkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.02Jul 28, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rosen Plevneliev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.02Jul 28, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$0.02Jul 28, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?$0.16Jul 28, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.36Jul 28, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 950 to 999 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.12Jul 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Zylberfink be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?$0.01Jul 28, 05:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$2.00Jul 28, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$0.27Jul 28, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be 5% or higher?$0.06Jul 28, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 2% and 3%?$0.04Jul 28, 00:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 130 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
130 closed markets, 94% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 10:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 130 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.