Frightened-Comment
0x908c1cdbad27fd3b4609595f9eb9a08d328ee048
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-893.31
Realised
$-5.36
Win rate
64%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- YES
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
2999 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-179.89
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
600 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-111.30
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
239 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-85.93
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
150 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-73.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
150 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-32.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
122 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-44.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
101 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-10.95
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
100 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-29.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
100 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-60.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
86 shares @ 31.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-27.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$40.89Mar 3, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$9.57Mar 3, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$54.17Mar 3, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$0.19Mar 3, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$18.00Mar 3, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$19.15Mar 3, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$0.06Mar 3, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$0.06Mar 3, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$30.00Mar 3, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$6.10Mar 3, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$0.42Mar 3, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$1.28Mar 3, 07:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$19.82Feb 8, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$44.47Feb 8, 23:42 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.35Jan 24, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.75Jan 23, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$1.95Jan 23, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$2.20Jan 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$3.30Jan 23, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$6.20Jan 23, 18:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 23, 16:10 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 3, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.