Knotty-Webinar
0x90dd9a41c512adfc1377177765663fb42b6bc435
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$35.91
Total PnL
$-33.02
Realised
$-0.54
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.00
$1.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$5.00
$2.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.88
$1.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 71.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$4.88
$1.32
- FC MITO HOLLY HOCK
Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5)
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.67
$-0.03
- NO
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends win on 2026-08-15?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.45
$1.35
- YES
Will FC Bayern Munich Legends vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
5 shares @ 57.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.37
$1.52
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
5 shares @ 57.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.52
$-0.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 51.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.13
$-2.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 12?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.02
$-1.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.85Aug 12, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$2.90Aug 12, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$2.69Aug 12, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.95Aug 12, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$2.70Aug 12, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$2.70Aug 12, 20:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.93Aug 12, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$4.58Aug 12, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$2.70Aug 12, 20:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Borussia Monchengladbach win on 2026-08-12?$5.00Aug 12, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$2.90Aug 12, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$5.00Aug 12, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$2.74Aug 12, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $2.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 16:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 21:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.