Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

109

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-19.3K

Realised

$-397.05

Win rate

93 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 109

NO
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
1600 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-704.00
YES
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
1000 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-530.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
700 shares @ 49.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026
$0.00
$-346.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
690 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-352.02
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
600 shares @ 38.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-228.67
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
600 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-287.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
600 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-194.46
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
600 shares @ 46.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-279.54
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
529 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-260.74
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
500 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-255.00

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$4.79Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$4.58Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$11.39Jul 17, 16:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$39.65Jul 17, 16:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$42.85Jul 17, 16:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$68.86Jul 17, 16:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$11.59Jul 17, 16:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$24.57Jul 17, 16:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$3.76Jul 17, 16:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$34.66Jul 17, 16:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$1.87Jul 17, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$8.32Jul 17, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$10.80Jul 17, 16:05 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$276.15Jul 17, 15:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$64.10Jul 17, 15:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$76.73Jul 17, 15:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$42.71Jul 17, 14:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$16.21Jul 17, 14:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.28Jul 17, 14:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$26.50Jul 17, 14:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 93 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

93 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry96 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $46.56
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 17, 11:38 UTC
Last active: Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 93 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:07:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data