Green-Familiarity
0x912bfcc95824c0428df0af49ccae0b33ca11761d
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-24.34
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 2PM ET
1050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be at least 20 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
94 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
87 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
18 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10AM ET
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
5 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 12PM ET
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?$8.33May 23, 13:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?$0.00Feb 3, 15:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?$6.67Feb 3, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$1.35Jan 18, 11:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$0.00Jan 17, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$0.42Jan 17, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$0.58Jan 17, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - January 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$1.00Jan 17, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - January 17, 2PM ET$1.00Jan 17, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - January 17, 2PM ET$1.00Jan 17, 19:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$5.46Jan 17, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 17, 12PM ET$1.00Jan 17, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 17, 10AM ET$1.00Jan 17, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 13, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 40 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 12, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 20 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 12, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 200 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$3.00Jan 12, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 150 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$5.00Jan 12, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?$0.00Jan 12, 12:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?$7.45Jan 12, 12:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $2.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 15:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.