Hard-Favor
0x91470a79169762a38fd76b7ef341d2cf7e104274
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-559.28
Realised
$-197.94
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
263 shares @ 40.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-106.71
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
207 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-12.02
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
128 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
120 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
103 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-39.09
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
84 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-35.47
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
75 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
62 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$9.72Aug 18, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$5.32Aug 18, 09:54 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$14.93Aug 18, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$10.23Aug 18, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$5.26Aug 18, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$25.54Aug 18, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$34.55Aug 18, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$26.10Aug 18, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$25.97Aug 18, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$26.27Aug 18, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$30.96Aug 18, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$25.82Aug 18, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$25.43Aug 18, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$32.93Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$25.42Aug 18, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$5.33Aug 18, 08:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $14.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 19:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 09:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.