Expensive-Dearest
0x914bc38b6e539d390977d1525b7e71a9c359e406
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
165
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-6.2K
Realised
$319.38
Win rate
5%
117 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 165- NO
Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%?
138 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$137.79
$37.15
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
132 shares @ 71.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$129.06
$35.46
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
127 shares @ 78.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$126.63
$26.63
- NO
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.2–0.4%?
111 shares @ 83.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$109.37
$16.97
- YES
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
106 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$105.63
$5.99
- NO
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?
64 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$63.83
$14.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 23?
53 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$52.57
$2.60
- NO
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Neither team to score first?
53 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$52.57
$2.60
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?
53 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$52.26
$2.29
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 20–25%?
52 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$52.00
$2.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 24?$45.35Aug 23, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$53.26Aug 23, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYVasteraas SK vs. Kalmar FF: Neither team to score first?$49.03Aug 23, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Neither team to score first?$50.09Aug 23, 05:24 UTC
- REDEEMReal Madrid CF to score first vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona?$52.60Aug 23, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on August 23?$47.43Aug 23, 04:03 UTC
- REDEEMSt. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Neither team to score first?$52.00Aug 23, 03:12 UTC
- REDEEMNashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: Neither team to score first?$52.00Aug 23, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYNashville SC vs. Columbus Crew: Neither team to score first?$49.03Aug 23, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSt. Louis City SC vs. Houston Dynamo: Neither team to score first?$49.03Aug 23, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYReal Madrid CF to score first vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona?$50.09Aug 22, 19:32 UTC
- REDEEMBrentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Neither team to score first?$52.60Aug 22, 18:39 UTC
- REDEEMRacing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: Neither team to score first?$52.60Aug 22, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYRacing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: Neither team to score first?$50.09Aug 22, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Neither team to score first?$50.09Aug 22, 06:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$52.20Aug 22, 06:01 UTC
- REDEEMReal Betis Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Neither team to score first?$53.00Aug 21, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coventry City FC win on 2026-08-21?$52.00Aug 21, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYReal Betis Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Neither team to score first?$49.97Aug 21, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-20?$53.00Aug 20, 23:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 117 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
117 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $48.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 03:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 13:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 117 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.