Afraid-Bourgeoisie
0x9167f30fd6d3b674c1aa8c0f781b7ca8f3ed3be6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-96.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
10333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-62.00
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
239 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 7?
27 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Palantir say "Government Contract" during earnings call?
14 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?
10 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
7 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$1.97Jul 16, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$6.14Jul 16, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$8.49Jul 15, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?$0.84Jul 15, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$4.78Jul 15, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$9.68Jul 15, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$5.16Jul 14, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?$1.04Jul 13, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$10.39Jul 13, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$5.20Jul 13, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$10.38Jul 13, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$5.19Jul 13, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMParamount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?$5.00Jul 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?$62.00Jan 3, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?$1.00Dec 27, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYParamount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?$1.20Dec 27, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?$1.00Dec 27, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during December press conference?$3.70Nov 21, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$2.52Nov 11, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$5.00Nov 6, 23:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 3, 18:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 18:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.