Wallet digest

active

Activity score

49/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.5K

Realised

$471.59

Win rate

48%

25 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
243 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-127.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
240 shares @ 51.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-123.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
240 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-120.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
239 shares @ 52.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-125.75
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
239 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-122.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
239 shares @ 51.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-122.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
238 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-132.05
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
236 shares @ 53.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-126.10
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
236 shares @ 51.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-122.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
234 shares @ 55.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-129.90

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$39.92Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$6.64Jul 3, 23:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$2.36Jul 3, 23:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$3.52Jul 3, 23:10 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$25.00Jul 3, 08:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$17.87Jul 3, 08:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$5.50Jul 3, 08:03 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$25.00Jul 3, 05:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$7.35Jul 3, 05:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$16.75Jul 3, 05:26 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$25.00Jul 2, 08:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$9.15Jul 2, 08:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$15.25Jul 2, 08:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$3.99Jul 2, 01:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$3.60Jul 2, 01:03 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$25.57Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$2.65Jun 30, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.08Jun 30, 21:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.54Jun 30, 21:00 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$24.99Jun 30, 06:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

48% win rate over 25 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence83 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $8.71
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 27, 07:53 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 25 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:24:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data