Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

104

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-303.07

Realised

$-14.23

Win rate

104 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 104

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
592 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
427 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-5.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
212 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.12
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
188 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-1.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
176 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-4.06
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
102 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
99 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.98
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
99 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-4.93
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
68 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-2.04
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
54 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-5.92

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$2.07Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$1.55Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$2.08Jul 22, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.09Jul 22, 21:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.07Jul 22, 21:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$2.08Jul 22, 21:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$2.10Jul 22, 20:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$2.08Jul 22, 20:33 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$4.00Jul 22, 19:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$2.07Jul 22, 19:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$4.00Jul 22, 17:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$2.07Jul 22, 17:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$2.12Jul 22, 15:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$2.12Jul 22, 15:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$2.12Jul 22, 15:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.12Jul 22, 12:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$2.11Jul 22, 11:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$6.70Jul 22, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$2.11Jul 22, 11:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$2.12Jul 22, 11:04 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 104 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

104 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $2.10
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 10:00 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 104 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:51:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data