High-Alarm
0x9238743eeba8bbfe9e85ac7ba2e1e3d77877b73e
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
170
Open notional
$18.5K
Total PnL
$2.4K
Realised
$2.3K
Win rate
73%
75 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 170- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 80.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.7K
$244.41
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
1605 shares @ 73.8¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$75.35
- YES
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
1225 shares @ 54.9¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$900.38
$227.97
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
712 shares @ 81.2¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$640.89
$62.74
- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?
750 shares @ 61.4¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$630.00
$169.29
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1005 shares @ 58.2¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$557.77
$-27.52
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
1355 shares @ 27.4¢·now 36.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$494.57
$123.44
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
2502 shares @ 17.5¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$487.96
$50.88
- NO
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?
566 shares @ 71.1¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$486.42
$84.28
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
1008 shares @ 49.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$478.97
$-15.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$9.82Jul 29, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$16.75Jul 29, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$12.75Jul 29, 00:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$12.50Jul 29, 00:47 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$12.25Jul 29, 00:47 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.56Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$34.10Jul 29, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$5.88Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- REWARD$2.81Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?$0.87Jul 28, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$7.44Jul 28, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$1.81Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$9.00Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$8.75Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$12.00Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$11.75Jul 28, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$10.79Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$7.85Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$37.10Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 75 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
75 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $15.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 75 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.