Wallet digest

active

Activity score

58/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-505.77

Realised

$51.92

Win rate

70%

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

NO
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 18, 11PM ET?
45 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-28.55
NO
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 25, 2PM ET?
27 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-10.69
NO
Bitcoin above 59,800 on June 24, 4PM ET?
25 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-5.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
23 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.18
YES
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 11PM ET?
20 shares @ 58.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-11.70
NO
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 23, 1PM ET?
18 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.08
NO
Bitcoin above 59,200 on June 25, 2PM ET?
16 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-6.02
YES
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 22, 12AM ET?
15 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-7.25
NO
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 25, 1AM ET?
15 shares @ 57.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-8.60
NO
Bitcoin above 60,000 on June 27, 12AM ET?
15 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-1.17

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$1.52Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.10Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$4.85Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.15Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$4.80Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.20Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$4.75Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.35Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$4.65Jul 10, 21:27 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.65Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.70Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$0.70Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$4.30Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
MERGEBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$5.00Jul 10, 21:26 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

70% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry70 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $2.28
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 10, 21:23 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:08:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data